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Beliefs and Risk Perceptions About COVID-19: Evidence From Two Successive French Representative Surveys During
Arthur E Attema1, Olivier L'Haridon2, Jocelyn Raude3
1EsCHER, Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Frontiers in Psychology
|February 18, 2021
Summary
During COVID-19 lockdown, French citizens overestimated their risk of infection and death. Initially optimistic, they later showed comparative pessimism regarding disease risk, influenced by changing perceptions.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted societal risk perception and individual decision-making.
- Personal risk assessment and beliefs are crucial determinants of behaviors like mask-wearing during pandemics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate French citizens' beliefs and risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 during lockdown.
- To assess the calibration of these beliefs against available evidence and explore socio-demographic influences.
- To dynamically analyze changes in risk perception and comparative optimism/pessimism over time.
Main Methods:
- Surveys conducted twice during lockdown in France to elicit beliefs about infection fatality ratio (IFR), personal risk, perceived risk by others, and prevalence.
- Belief quality was assessed against contemporary evidence to evaluate belief calibration.
- Analysis of changes in risk perception and comparative optimism/pessimism between survey waves.
Main Results:
- Risk perceptions were high and increased over time; however, personal experience with COVID-19 did not significantly impact beliefs.
- Respondents initially exhibited optimism about contracting COVID-19, but this shifted to comparative pessimism by the second survey.
- Subjective assessment of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) remained stable, contrasting with rising personal risk perceptions.
Conclusions:
- Respondents generally overestimated their risk of contracting or dying from COVID-19, a common phenomenon not necessarily indicating irrationality.
- A rational model explained the increase in perceived personal risk but not the stable IFR perception.
- The shift to comparative pessimism was likely driven by increased perceived personal risk coupled with a decrease in expected prevalence.
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