Conditional probability of graft survival in liver transplantation using donation after circulatory death grafts - a

Kazunari Sasaki1, Amit Nair1, Daniel J Firl2

  • 1Department of General Surgery, Digestive Disease Institute, Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.

Insights

Donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver transplants show worse graft survival and higher biliary complication rates than donation after brain death (DBD) livers, even years post-transplant. Careful DCD graft selection is crucial for better long-term outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Transplantation Medicine
  • Hepatology
  • Organ Donation

Background:

  • Donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver grafts historically have higher rates of biliary complications and lower short-term graft survival (GS) compared to donation after brain death (DBD) allografts.
  • The long-term prognostic impact of DCD livers after initial post-transplant survival remains incompletely understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To dynamically evaluate the prognostic impact of DCD livers in liver transplantation (LT).
  • To determine if DCD livers remain an adverse factor beyond the early post-transplant period.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 74,961 LT recipients (4,065 DCD LT) from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (2002-2017).
  • Calculation of conditional hazard ratios (HR) for 1-year graft survival using a conditional Cox regression model.
  • Graft loss analysis focusing on biliary complications.

Main Results:

  • Actual 1-, 3-, and 5-year GS for DCD LT recipients were significantly worse than DBD (83.3%, 73.3%, 66.3% vs. DBD).
  • Conditional HR of 1-year GS for DCD vs. DBD livers were 1.87 (actual), 1.49 (1-year conditional), and 1.39 (3-year conditional).
  • Biliary complications were significantly higher in the DCD group, persisting beyond 3 years post-LT.

Conclusions:

  • DCD liver grafts present protracted higher risks compared to DBD grafts, even after successful early post-transplant survival.
  • Long-term risks, particularly biliary complications, necessitate careful DCD graft selection at the center level to optimize patient outcomes.