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The Impact of COVID-19 on Students' Marks: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach
Jabed Tomal1, Saeed Rahmati1, Shirin Boroushaki1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8 Canada.
The COVID-19 pandemic shifted Canadian university STEM education online, impacting student marks. Lower-level cognitive skill courses saw higher marks, while higher-level courses saw decreases, especially for underachieving students.
Area of Science:
- Education
- Statistics
- Psychology
Background:
- COVID-19 necessitated a rapid shift from in-person to online learning in Canadian universities.
- This transition affected science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) courses, including assessment methods.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on student marks in STEM courses.
- To analyze how the shift to online learning and non-invigilated assessments influenced academic performance.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a Bayesian linear mixed effects model with longitudinal data from eleven STEM courses.
- Employed a novel Bayesian missing value imputation method to handle incomplete data.
- Analyzed changes in student marks based on Bloom's Taxonomy cognitive skill levels.
Main Results:
- Observed an increase in average marks for courses requiring lower-level cognitive skills.
- Observed a decrease in average marks for courses requiring higher-level cognitive skills.
- Noted larger mark fluctuations for underachieving students; approximately half of disengaged students were in special support.
Conclusions:
- The online learning transition during COVID-19 had a differential impact on STEM courses based on cognitive demand.
- Underachieving students experienced more significant shifts in academic performance.
- Student disengagement was notably high among those requiring special support.
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