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An interactive tool to forecast US hospital needs in the coronavirus 2019 pandemic

Kenneth J Locey¹, Thomas A Webb¹, Jawad Khan²

¹Center for Quality, Safety and Value Analytics, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA.

|February 23, 2021

Abstract

Objective:

We developed an application (https://rush-covid19.herokuapp.com/) to aid US hospitals in planning their response to the ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Materials And Methods:

Our application forecasts hospital visits, admits, discharges, and needs for hospital beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment by coupling COVID-19 predictions to models of time lags, patient carry-over, and length-of-stay. Users can choose from 7 COVID-19 models, customize 23 parameters, examine trends in testing and hospitalization, and download forecast data.

Results:

Our application accurately predicts the spread of COVID-19 across states and territories. Its hospital-level forecasts are in continuous use by our home institution and others.

Discussion:

Our application is versatile, easy-to-use, and can help hospitals plan their response to the changing dynamics of COVID-19, while providing a platform for deeper study.

Conclusion:

Empowering healthcare responses to COVID-19 is as crucial as understanding the epidemiology of the disease. Our application will continue to evolve to meet this need.

Keywords:

COVID-19 SEIR epidemiology forecasting healthcare modeling

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