Dissolved phosphorus export through baseflow in an intensively cultivated agricultural watershed of eastern China

Inputs of phosphorus (P) during baseflow period usually come from groundwater, bed sediments, and some other sources. Baseflow P can have critical effects on nutrient enrichment of surface waters in some intensively cultivated agricultural watersheds. This study was conducted to estimate the baseflow dissolved phosphorus (DP) export in a typical rainy agricultural watershed of eastern China using a recursive tracing source algorithm (RTSA) and reveal the rules and trends of baseflow DP loads and concentrations. Results indicated that RTSA provided a satisfactory prediction for baseflow DP load (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.72, R² = 0.74). From 2003 to 2012, the annual baseflow DP loads ranged from 0.159 (2004) to 0.771 (2012) kg/ha which contributed about 64.3% of the mean total annual DP export in stream (0.597 kg/ha). The annual flow-weighted DP concentrations in streamflow (0.076-0.125 mg/L) and baseflow (0.076-0.137 mg/L) far exceeded the eutrophication threshold of DP (0.01 mg/L). Significantly increasing trends were obtained in the streamflow and baseflow DP loads and the flow-weighted concentrations (Mann-Kendall test, Z_s > 2.56, p < 0.01) because of the changes of hydro-meteorological conditions. This indicates that, in the context of global climate change, baseflow DP export would be one of key issues for nonpoint source pollution control in the intensive agricultural watershed.