Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in African countries during 1984‒2014

The potential for mitigating climate change is growing worldwide, with an increasing emphasis on reducing CO₂ emissions and minimising the impact on the environment. African continent is faced with the unique challenge of climate change whilst coping with extreme poverty, explosive population growth and economic difficulties. CO₂ emission patterns in Africa are analysed in this study to understand primary CO₂ sources and underlying driving forces further. Data are examined using gravity model, logarithmic mean divisia index and Tapio's decoupling indicator of CO₂ emissions from economic development in 20 selected African countries during 1984-2014. Results reveal that CO₂ emissions increased by 2.11% (453.73 million ton) over the research period. Gravity centre for African CO₂ emissions had shifted towards the northeast direction. Population and economic growth were primary driving forces of CO₂ emissions. Industrial structure and emission efficiency effects partially offset the growth of CO₂ emissions. The economic growth effect was an offset factor in central African countries and Zimbabwe due to political instability and economic mismanagement. Industrial structure and emission efficiency were insufficient to decouple economic development from CO₂ emissions and relieve the pressure of population explosion on CO₂ emissions in Africa. Thus, future efforts in reducing CO₂ emissions should focus on scale-up energy-efficient technologies, renewable energy update, emission pricing and long-term green development towards sustainable development goals by 2030.