Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance.

Area of Science:

• Hydrology and Climate Science
• Environmental Engineering
• Risk Management

Background:

• Significant advancements in understanding climate change effects on flood hazards.
• Current practical flood estimation guidance inadequately incorporates climate change uncertainty.
• A gap exists between climate science research and engineering practice in flood risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore how to modify practical flood guidance to include climate change uncertainty.
• To bridge the gap between climate science and engineering flood estimation methods.
• To inform future research directions for climate-resilient flood risk management.

Main Methods:

• Review of physical causes of changing flood patterns.
• Discussion of common design flood estimation techniques and their handling of uncertainty.
• Analysis of existing literature and global flood guidance incorporating climate change.

Main Results:

• Climate science addresses aleatory, epistemic, and deep uncertainty, while engineering practice primarily focuses on aleatory uncertainty.
• Progress is evident, with many jurisdictions beginning to integrate climate change into flood guidance.
• Existing hydrological research methods do not always align with current flood estimation practices.

Conclusions:

• Deep uncertainty from climate change necessitates a shift towards flexible design and planning.
• Future research should provide information supporting various practical flood estimation methods.
• Enhanced integration of climate change impacts is crucial for effective flood risk management.