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Use of spreadsheet software for short-range forecasting of pharmacy management data
1Pharmacy Practice Research, International Health Information Applications, Inc., Washington, DC 20037.
American Journal of Hospital Pharmacy
|February 1, 1988
Summary
This study introduces a spreadsheet-based forecasting model using exponential smoothing for pharmacy management. It helps predict future data trends, aiding in better resource allocation and operational planning.
Area of Science:
- Pharmacy Management
- Health Informatics
- Operations Research
Background:
- Effective forecasting is crucial for efficient pharmacy management.
- Traditional methods may not fully leverage readily available data.
- Personal computer spreadsheet software offers powerful analytical capabilities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe a personal-computer spreadsheet program for forecasting pharmacy management data.
- To present two versions of an exponential smoothing forecasting model.
- To demonstrate the application of these models using hospital data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet software for data analysis.
- Implemented exponential smoothing with weighted historical data.
- Developed two model versions: Version A for stable data, Version B for trending data.
- Determined smoothing weights using a mean squared error table.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated successful forecasting of outpatient prescriptions using Version A.
- Illustrated forecasting of semiannual expenditures on i.v. solutions and sets using Version B.
- Showcased tabular and graphic output for data interpretation.
Conclusions:
- Spreadsheet-based forecasting models can effectively quantify drug-use and personnel information.
- These tools aid pharmacy managers in presenting data to hospital administration.
- The described models offer practical solutions for improving pharmacy operations.