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Published on: January 8, 2020
Neural Networks to Estimate Generalized Propensity Scores for Continuous Treatment Doses
Zachary K Collier1, Walter L Leite2, Allison Karpyn1
1University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA.
Neural networks offer a robust method for estimating the generalized propensity score (GPS), outperforming traditional regression models. This approach effectively reduces selection bias in causal inference with continuous treatments, even with smaller datasets.
Area of Science:
- Causal Inference
- Machine Learning
- Biostatistics
Background:
- The generalized propensity score (GPS) is crucial for causal inference with continuous treatments, addressing selection bias from observed confounders.
- Traditional parametric models for GPS estimation impose strict assumptions, often unmet in real-world research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate neural networks against full factorial regression models for GPS estimation.
- To assess performance with Gaussian and skewed treatment doses across small to moderate sample sizes.
Main Methods:
- A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted.
- Neural networks were implemented for GPS estimation, including hyperparameter selection.
- A public health example demonstrated GPS estimation using neural networks for dose-response analysis.
Main Results:
- Neural networks yielded higher correlations and lower mean squared error compared to true GPS.
- GPS estimation with neural networks removed more selection bias than classical regression models.
- This indicates superior performance of neural networks in estimating GPS.
Conclusions:
- Neural networks present a novel and effective methodology for estimating GPS.
- This approach is less sensitive to the restrictive assumptions of parametric models.
- Neural networks are a viable alternative to parametric methods for propensity score estimation in continuous treatment scenarios.
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