A Modified Hybrid Wald's Approximation Method for Efficient Covariate Selection in Population Pharmacokinetic...

One important objective of population pharmacokinetic (PPK) analyses is to identify and quantify relationships between covariates and model parameters such as clearance and volume. To improve upon existing covariate model development methods including stepwise procedures and Wald's approximation method (WAM), this paper introduces an innovative method named the hybrid first-order conditional estimation (FOCE)/Monte-Carlo parametric expectation maximization (MCPEM)-based Wald's approximation method with backward elimination (BE), or H-WAM-BE. Compared with WAM, this new method uses MCPEM to obtain full covariance matrix after running FOCE to obtain full model parameter estimates, followed by BE to select the final covariate model. Two groups of datasets (simulation datasets and rituximab datasets) were used to compare the performance of H-WAM-BE with two other methods, likelihood ratio test (LRT)-based stepwise covariate method (SCM) and H-WAM with full subset approach (H-WAM-F) in NONMEM. Different scenarios with different sample sizes and sampling schemes were used for simulating datasets. The nominal model was used as the reference to evaluate the three methods for their ability to accurately identify parameter-covariate relationships. The methods were compared using the number of true and false positive covariates identified, number of times that they identified the reference model, computation times, and predictive performance. Best-performing H-WAM-BE methods (M2 and M4) showed comparable results with LRT-based SCM. H-WAM-BE required shorter or comparable computation times than LRT-based SCM and H-WAM-F regardless of the model structure, sample size, or sampling design used in this study.