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Updated: Nov 15, 2025

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Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production.

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  • 1ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France.

Global Change Biology
|March 4, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change will reduce marine consumer biomass by 18.5% and predator abundance by 21.3% by 2099 due to altered food web dynamics and decreased primary production.

Keywords:
EcoTrophbiomass flowclimate changeecosystem modelingmarine food webtrophic ecologytrophic structure

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Area of Science:

  • Marine ecology
  • Climate change science
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Climate change is accelerating impacts on marine life, affecting food web structure and function.
  • Changes in biomass flow within marine food webs are critical to ecosystem health and productivity.
  • Understanding these impacts is vital for predicting the future of marine ecosystems and fisheries.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of climate-driven changes in marine food web biomass flow on ecosystem biomass and production.
  • To project future changes in marine consumer biomass and production at a global scale throughout the 21st century.
  • To assess the consequences of altered trophic functioning on marine ecosystems and fisheries.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a modeling framework representing biomass flow through marine food webs.
  • Incorporated three climate-related factors: primary production, trophic transfer efficiency, and flow kinetics.
  • Employed climate projections from three Earth system models across a 1° latitude × 1° longitude global ocean grid under two emission scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Projected a 18.5% decline in total marine consumer biomass by 2090-2099 under a no-mitigation scenario.
  • Observed a 21.3% decrease in predator abundance due to reduced trophic transfer efficiency at higher trophic levels.
  • Indicated a decline in marine animal production, though less pronounced than biomass reduction.

Conclusions:

  • Altered trophic functioning, driven by faster, less efficient biomass transfers and reduced primary production, will significantly impact marine ecosystems.
  • Projected changes in biomass and production have direct repercussions for global fisheries and ocean services.
  • Mitigation policies are crucial to address the projected decline in marine ecosystem health and function.