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Prognostic performance of troponin in COVID-19: A diagnostic meta-analysis and meta-regression
Arief Wibowo1, Raymond Pranata2, Mohammad Rizki Akbar1
1Department of Cardiology and Vascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran, Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Hasan Sadikin, Bandung, Indonesia.
Insights
Elevated troponin levels in COVID-19 patients indicate a higher risk of mortality. This biomarker is a significant predictor of death, even when considering other health conditions.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Biomarkers
Background:
- Cardiac injury is common in COVID-19 patients, increasing mortality risk.
- Elevated troponin levels suggest myocardial damage and predict mortality.
- Understanding troponin's prognostic value in COVID-19 is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the prognostic value of elevated troponin for mortality in COVID-19 patients.
- To identify factors influencing the relationship between troponin and mortality.
- To analyze troponin's predictive accuracy using meta-analysis.
Main Methods:
- Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases.
- Inclusion of 13 studies with 12,262 patients.
- Definition of elevated troponin as above the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL).
Main Results:
- Elevated troponin was observed in 31% of patients and associated with a 4.75-fold increased mortality risk.
- The association between troponin and mortality was not affected by age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, or coronary artery disease.
- Elevated troponin demonstrated 55% sensitivity and 80% specificity for predicting mortality.
Conclusions:
- Elevated troponin is a significant predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients.
- The prognostic value of troponin is consistent across various demographic and clinical factors.
- Troponin testing can aid in risk stratification for COVID-19 patients.
Background:
Cardiac injury is frequently encountered in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is associated with increased risk of mortality. Elevated troponin may signify myocardial damage and is predictive of mortality. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of troponin above the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) for mortality, and factors affecting the relationship.
Methods:
A comprehensive literature search of PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus and Embase was undertaken, from inception of the databases until 16 December 2020. The key exposure was elevated serum troponin, defined as troponin (of any type) above the 99th percentile URL. The outcome was mortality due to any cause.
Results:
In total, 12,262 patients from 13 studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The mortality rate was 23% (20-26%). Elevated troponin was observed in 31% (23-38%) of patients. Elevated troponin was associated with increased mortality [odds ratio (OR) 4.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.07-5.53; P < 0.001; I2 = 19.9%]. Meta-regression showed that the association did not vary with age (P = 0.218), male gender (P = 0.707), hypertension (P = 0.182), diabetes (P = 0.906) or coronary artery disease (P = 0864). The association between elevated troponin and mortality had sensitivity of 0.55 (0.44-0.66), specificity of 0.80 (0.71-0.86), positive likelihood ratio of 2.7 (2.2-3.3), negative likelihood ratio of 0.56 (0.49-0.65), diagnosis odds ratio of 5 (4-5) and area under the curve of 0.73 (0.69-0.77). The probability of mortality was 45% in patients with elevated troponin and 14% in patients with non-elevated troponin.
Conclusion:
Elevated troponin was associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 with 55% sensitivity and 80% specificity.
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