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Updated: Nov 15, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing
Michael E Mann1, Byron A Steinman2, Daniel J Brouillette3
1Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, 514 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802-5013, USA. mann@psu.edu.
Abstract:
Past research argues for an internal multidecadal (40- to 60-year) oscillation distinct from climate noise. Recent studies have claimed that this so-termed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is instead a manifestation of competing time-varying effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. That conclusion is bolstered by the absence of robust multidecadal climate oscillations in control simulations of current-generation models. Paleoclimate data, however, do demonstrate multidecadal oscillatory behavior during the preindustrial era. By comparing control and forced "Last Millennium" simulations, we show that these apparent multidecadal oscillations are an artifact of pulses of volcanic activity during the preindustrial era that project markedly onto the multidecadal (50- to 70-year) frequency band. We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.
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