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Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density
Yongmei Ding1, Liyuan Gao2, Ning-Yi Shao3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. dingyongmei@wust.edu.cn.
Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
|March 10, 2021
Summary
Temperature differences significantly impact COVID-19 transmission in the US. Warmer temperatures correlate with increased cases, highlighting the need for continued public health interventions during colder months.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
Background:
- The spatiotemporal patterns of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States were analyzed.
- Temperature difference (TD) was identified as a significant factor influencing daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases, even after accounting for population density.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between temperature differences and the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 transmission in the US.
- To quantify the impact of varying temperature intervals on daily new confirmed cases.
Main Methods:
- Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) was employed to capture the nonlinear features of updated COVID-19 cases.
- Exposure-response curves and piecewise functions with threshold points were used to analyze the effect of TD at different stages.
- Sensitivity analysis was conducted to confirm model robustness.
Main Results:
- A decrease of 0.390% in confirmed cases was observed for each 1°C increase in TD below 11.5°C.
- Confirmed cases increased by 0.302% for every 1°C rise in TD between 11.5°C and 16°C (lag0-4).
- A further increase of 0.321% in confirmed cases was noted for every 1°C rise in TD above 16°C (lag0-4), with peak fluctuations on Sundays.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights a complex, non-linear relationship between temperature differences and COVID-19 transmission in the US.
- Urgent control measures are necessary during autumn and winter when temperature increases may exacerbate COVID-19 spread.
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