Predictors and risk factors for intestinal necrosis in patients with mesenteric ischemia

Mesenteric ischemia results in blood flow that is insufficient to meet metabolic demands and subsequent dysfunction of visceral organs, including arterial obstruction and venous thrombosis. Sustained mesenteric ischemia exhausts the ability of capillaries to provide oxygen and initiate an inflammatory reaction, and eventually leads to intestinal mucosal necrosis, a serious and potentially life-threatening condition. Therefore, it is essential that the predictors and risk factors for intestinal necrosis in patients with mesenteric thrombus are explored.

This study retrospectively enrolled 41 patients with mesenteric ischemia (including mesenteric vein embolism, mesenteric artery thrombosis, and portal vein thrombosis) who were admitted to the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital between May 2016 and October 2019; of the patients, 18 were further diagnosed with intestinal necrosis. Comparisons of symptoms, computed tomography angiography (CTA) features, and laboratory examination results were performed between mesenteric ischemia patients with and without intestinal necrosis.

White blood cell count showed an excellent predictive ability for intestinal necrosis in patients with mesenteric ischemia, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.772 (P=0.009). The four CTA features [pneumatosis (P=0.016), intestinal swelling (P=0.006), ascitic fluid (P<0.001), and decreased intestinal wall enhancement (P=0.004)] differed significantly between patients with and without intestinal necrosis. Peritonitis showed a strong association with intestinal necrosis (P=0.006) in the univariate analysis, and multivariate analysis further showed their association [odds ratio (OR): 8.53; 95%CI: 1.46-49.81; P=0.017].

White blood cell count is a potential predictor of intestinal necrosis. Peritonitis is a possible risk factor for intestinal necrosis in patients with mesenteric ischemia. A multi-center prospective study with a larger sample size needs to be performed to further investigate these findings.