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Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking
Duo Li1, Yajing Liu2
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich University, Theresienstrasse 41, 80333 Munich, Germany.
Summary
Paleo-earthquake data suggest large Cascadia megathrust ruptures. Numerical simulations incorporating geodetic fault locking reveal rupture patterns are controlled by the seismogenic zone
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Tectonics
Background:
- Paleo-earthquake evidence indicates massive ruptures along the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ).
- The lack of modern megathrust earthquake records and fault quiescence obscure CSZ rupture scenarios and the seismogenic zone's downdip limit.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of geodetic fault locking on megathrust earthquake sequences in the CSZ.
- To explore how fault locking and seismogenic zone characteristics affect rupture patterns.
Main Methods:
- Numerical simulations using a rate-and-state friction framework.
- Incorporating geodetic fault locking data (GPS, tidal gauge, leveling) to constrain friction parameters.
- Validating rupture scenarios with historical coseismic subsidence data.
Main Results:
- Earthquake rupture patterns are significantly controlled by the seismogenic zone's downdip width and nucleation zone size.
- Heterogeneous slip distance along strike is necessary for margin-wide ruptures matching the AD 1700 event.
- Geodetic fault locking models provide effective constraints for subduction zone earthquake scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Geodetic fault locking is a critical factor in understanding CSZ megathrust earthquake behavior.
- Numerical modeling, constrained by geodetic and paleo-seismic data, can replicate past megathrust ruptures.
- This approach enhances our ability to forecast potential future earthquake scenarios in subduction zones.
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