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Modeling herbivore functional responses causing boom-bust dynamics following predator removal.

Vanessa Haller-Bull1,2,3, Michael Bode1,2

  • 1School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Qld Australia.

Ecology and Evolution
|March 15, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Removing invasive predators can cause native herbivore populations to crash. This study develops a predictive tool to help conservation managers avoid unintended boom-bust dynamics in ecosystems, even with limited data.

Keywords:
Lotka‐Volterraecological modelsfunctional responseinvasive managementinvasive species controlnonlinearitypredator control

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Theoretical Ecology

Background:

  • Invasive species pose a significant threat to native biodiversity globally.
  • Ecosystems can exhibit complex and unpredictable responses following the removal of invasive species.
  • Conservation efforts, while successful in controlling invasives, may inadvertently harm native populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict potential 'boom-bust' population dynamics in native herbivores after invasive predator removal.
  • To develop a predictive tool for conservation managers to assess risks in data-poor ecosystems.
  • To identify effective control strategies that mitigate negative consequences of invasive species management.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized theoretical Lotka-Volterra ecosystem models with three species: vegetation, native herbivore, and invasive predator.
  • Simulated invasive predator control activities within these theoretical models.
  • Investigated the impact of different functional responses and model parameters on ecosystem dynamics.
  • Developed a predictive tool based on relative parameter values to forecast herbivore population fluctuations.

Main Results:

  • Removal of invasive predators can lead to native herbivore population 'booms' followed by 'busts' (crashes).
  • Model structure and parameters significantly influence conservation outcomes and the likelihood of boom-bust cycles.
  • A predictive tool was developed to forecast these dynamics based on ecosystem parameters.

Conclusions:

  • Conservation managers must consider potential unintended consequences, such as herbivore population crashes, when controlling invasive predators.
  • The developed predictive tool can aid managers in data-poor environments to assess the risk of boom-bust dynamics.
  • Proactive identification of risks allows for the implementation of strategies to mitigate negative impacts on native species and ecosystems.