Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2021

This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2021 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.

Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2019 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2021. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.

In total, 259,999 new cancer cases and 81,567 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2021. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the thyroid, colon and rectum, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.

The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to gradually decrease. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.