Determining afforestation areas by using social, economic and ecological scales

Global anthropogenic damage is caused when humans aim to improve their welfare by social and economic activities. From this vantage, this paper seeks to determine priority locations for afforestation areas and carbon sinks by using socio-economic and ecological variables. Factor analysis is performed on degraded forest areas (DEGFRST), the ratio of non-forest areas to provincial general area (NFL), average of total monthly rainfall (ATMR), air pollution (PM10), the amount of migration (AMGR), annual average population density (AAPD), gross domestic product by industrial activity (I_GDP), socio-economic development index (SEDI) of provinces, export (EXP) and import (IMP) amount of provinces, average number of cars per one thousand people (ACNPT), and average electricity consumption per person (AECPP) variables for all provinces in Turkey (KMO = 0.802, Bartlett's χ² = 832.191, and p < 0.0001). Principal component analysis is used as a factor extraction method. Based on the three components obtained (explaining 74.730% of the total variance), the factor scores of 81 provinces were analyzed geostatistically using the Kriging interpolation method. The final map of potential afforestation areas was created using three-factor maps and factor variances, according to weighted overlay analysis. As a result of this study, afforestation priority areas in Turkey were identified based on three components. In subsequent studies, by increasing the number of variables used in this study, strategies for increasing Turkey's carbon sinks can be planned. Evaluating socio-economic and ecological factors together in afforestation studies can contribute to balancing human impact and conservation through alternative approaches.