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Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern.

Ujjaval Srivastava1,2, Kaushalendra Kumar Singh3, Anjali Pandey4

  • 1Department of Statistics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India. ujjavalsri777@gmail.com.

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|March 24, 2021
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

New flexible models accurately capture India's unique age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) patterns, outperforming existing methods. These models aid policymakers in understanding fertility transitions and projecting future rates.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) patterns are crucial for demographic analysis.
  • Existing fertility models, developed for developed countries, inadequately represent India's distinct, positively skewed ASFR distribution.
  • Previous models failed to fit single-year ASFR patterns in India and selected states.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose four novel, flexible models designed to capture the diverse age patterns of fertility in Indian states.
  • To compare the performance of these proposed models against each other, original models, and the Hadwiger model.
  • To identify the most suitable models for fitting ASFR data in India and its states for improved fertility projection.

Main Methods:

  • Development and application of four flexible fertility models.
  • Estimation of model parameters using the Non-Linear Least Squares Method.
  • Model selection based on the corrected Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) using National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2015-2016 data.

Main Results:

  • All four proposed models demonstrated superior performance compared to original models and the Hadwiger model.
  • The Modified Gompertz Model showed the best fit for India, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat.
  • The Modified P-K and Modified G-P models provided the best fit for West Bengal, Tripura, Karnataka, and Punjab, respectively.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed flexible models offer a significant improvement for fitting ASFR patterns in India.
  • These models provide a valuable tool for policymakers to understand fertility transitions and project future fertility rates.
  • The study highlights the need for context-specific models in demographic analysis.