Industrial decarbonization under Japan's national mitigation scenarios: a multi-model analysis

Area of Science:

• Energy economics
• Industrial ecology
• Climate change mitigation

Background:

• Energy-intensive industries pose significant decarbonization challenges, particularly for rapidly industrializing nations and developed economies with substantial heavy industry sectors like Japan.
• Current industrial policies in Japan may not be sufficient to achieve industrial decarbonization by 2050, with a potential increase in the sector's emissions share.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore climate mitigation scenarios for Japan's industrial sector by 2050 using multiple energy-economic and integrated assessment models.
• To identify key technologies and policy implications for industrial decarbonization in Japan.

Main Methods:

• Utilized results from four distinct energy-economic and integrated assessment models.
• Analyzed climate mitigation scenarios for Japan's industrial sector up to 2050.
• Conducted a stocktaking of industry-sector modeling within integrated assessment models.

Main Results:

• Japan's industrial emissions share may increase by 2050 under current policies.
• Emission reductions in steelmaking are critical, achievable through carbon capture and hydrogen technologies post-2040.
• Electrification and biomass use in Japanese industries are projected to remain limited in 2050, indicating low potential for large-scale fuel switching.

Conclusions:

• Achieving industrial decarbonization in Japan requires significant advancements in research and development for early-stage, high-potential technologies.
• Improved modeling capabilities for energy end-use technologies are essential for accurate integrated assessment.
• Addressing limited stakeholder and modeler interest in nascent technologies is crucial for effective industrial mitigation strategies.