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The Relationship between Mobility and COVID-19 in Germany: Modeling Case Occurrence using Apple's Mobility Trends
Mark David Walker1, Mihály Sulyok2,3
1Department of the Natural and Built Environment, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
Methods of Information in Medicine
|March 27, 2021
Summary
Community mobility significantly decreased during COVID-19 restrictions in Germany, showing a negative correlation with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. This highlights the link between mobility trends and disease transmission.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Data Science
Background:
- German government implemented social restrictions in March 2020 to curb COVID-19 transmission.
- Apple Mobility Trends (AMT) data offers novel insights into community mobility patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 case occurrence in Germany.
- To assess changes in mobility following COVID-19 and social restrictions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Apple Mobility Trends (AMT) data to track community mobility.
- Employed Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to analyze the association between mobility and COVID-19 cases in Germany.
Main Results:
- Observed significant reductions in mobility post-restriction implementation.
- Found a negative correlation between mobility levels and confirmed COVID-19 case numbers.
- GAM incorporating all mobility data types showed superior fit (AIC: 2504) compared to models using individual categories.
Conclusions:
- Results indicate a clear association between community mobility and COVID-19 case occurrence.
- Further research into movement restrictions' impact on transmission is warranted.
- Demonstrates the utility of novel online data sources for epidemiological studies.
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