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Updated: Nov 11, 2025
13:27
Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
9.0K
Assessing uncertainties from physical parameters and modelling choices in an atmospheric large eddy simulation model
Fredrik Jansson1,2, Wouter Edeling1, Jisk Attema3
1Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Summary
This study quantifies atmospheric model uncertainties using novel methods. Initial state perturbations and advection scheme choices significantly impact large eddy simulations, crucial for climate feedback research.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Computational Science
- Climate Modeling
Background:
- Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for reliable climate models.
- Distinguishing between physical parameter and modeling choice uncertainties is key.
- Convective response and cloud formation uncertainties impact cloud-climate feedback.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply modern UQ methods to atmospheric large eddy simulations.
- To assess uncertainties arising from physical parameters and modeling choices.
- To analyze the DALES model in the RICO convection benchmark case.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the VECMA toolkit for uncertainty propagation analysis.
- Investigated uncertainties in physical parameters and modeling choices.
- Assessed the DALES model's performance in the RICO case.
Main Results:
- Substantial uncertainties were identified stemming from initial state perturbations.
- The choice of advection scheme emerged as the most influential modeling choice.
- UQ methods were successfully adapted for assessing modeling choice uncertainties.
Conclusions:
- Modern UQ methods can effectively quantify uncertainties in atmospheric simulations.
- Model formulation, particularly advection schemes, significantly affects simulation outcomes.
- Addressing these uncertainties is critical for improving climate model reliability.
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