Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Resource Management
• Climate Adaptation

Background:

• Traditional water management approaches are challenged by increasing climate and other uncertainties.
• Scenario planning (SP) is a growing tool for water managers and planners facing these challenges.
• The Colorado River Basin faces significant compound and cascading risks due to climate change and other factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the potential of scenario planning (SP) in the Colorado River Basin.
• To build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks.
• To identify multi-scale solutions for river management.

Main Methods:

• A participatory, mixed-methods scenario planning (SP) approach was used.
• Conferences and workshops convened water managers, Tribes, NGOs, and Mexico representatives.
• Eight science-based storylines were developed from identified drivers of change.

Main Results:

• A framework for understanding low-probability, high-consequence climate and other risks was developed.
• Scenario planning (SP) fostered collaboration and creativity among diverse stakeholders.
• Key lessons were identified regarding process, uncertainty, complexity, and risk engagement.

Conclusions:

• Scenario planning (SP) is valuable for community building across sectors and geographies in river management.
• Engaging with uncertainty, complexity, and risk presents challenges but is crucial for effective planning.
• Findings offer insights for future scenario planning (SP) in the Colorado River Basin and other regions.