Mobility and COVID-19 mortality across Scandinavia: A modeling study

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Mobility Studies

Background:

• The Swedish government implemented fewer COVID-19 restrictions compared to neighboring Scandinavian countries.
• This study investigates the impact of differing governmental approaches on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the correlation between government restrictions, community mobility, and COVID-19 mortality.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of different metrics in assessing the impact of restrictions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Google's Community Movement Reports (CMR) for mobility data.
• Employed the Oxford Stringency Index (SI) to quantify restriction severity.
• Applied time-lagged correlation and statistical modeling to analyze data from different COVID-19 waves.

Main Results:

• Community mobility showed a negative correlation with COVID-19 mortality, with a delayed effect observed.
• The Stringency Index (SI) model was more effective than models using contemporaneous or lagged mobility data.
• Swedish data demonstrated a significant, independent association with mortality, irrespective of SI and CMR.

Conclusions:

• The Stringency Index (SI) offers a robust measure for tracking movement changes related to COVID-19 policies.
• Divergent restriction strategies, particularly in Sweden, had a notable impact on COVID-19 outcomes.