First pregnancy risk factors and future gestational diabetes mellitus

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affect about 17% of all pregnancies and is associated with significant short- and long-term health consequences for the mother and her offspring. Early diagnosis and prompt interventions may reduce these adverse outcomes. We aimed to identify first pregnancy characteristics as risk factors for GDM in subsequent pregnancy.

A population-based nested case-control study was conducted in a large tertiary hospital. The study population included all women with two singleton consecutive pregnancies and deliveries, without GDM in the first pregnancy. Characteristics and complications of the first pregnancy were compared among cases and controls. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to study the association between pregnancy complications (in the first pregnancy) and GDM in the subsequent pregnancy, while adjusting for confounding variables.

A total of 38,750 women were included in the study, of them 1.9% (n = 728) had GDM in their second pregnancy. Mothers with GDM in their second pregnancy were more likely to have the following first pregnancy complications: hypertensive disorders, perinatal mortality, maternal obesity and fetal macrosomia. Results remained significant after adjustment for maternal age and inter-pregnancy interval. Having either one of the complications increased the risk for GDM by 2.33 (adjusted OR = 2.33; 95% CI 1.93-2.82) while a combination of two complications increased GDM risk by 5.38 (adjusted OR = 5.38; 95% CI 2.85-10.17).

First pregnancy without GDM complicated by hypertensive disorders, perinatal mortality, maternal obesity and fetal macrosomia was associated with an increased risk for GDM in the subsequent pregnancy. Women with these complications may benefit from early detection of GDM in their subsequent pregnancy.