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The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden.

Benjamin Born1,2, Alexander M Dietrich2, Gernot J Müller3

  • 1Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, CEPR, and CESifo, Frankfurt, Germany.

Plos One
|April 8, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Sweden

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Most nations implemented lockdowns during the initial COVID-19 wave.
  • Sweden notably opted against a nationwide lockdown.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the potential impact of a lockdown on COVID-19 infections and deaths in Sweden.
  • To assess the economic consequences of a hypothetical lockdown.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a synthetic control method to create a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden.
  • Analyzed mobility pattern adjustments as an indicator of social restraint.

Main Results:

  • A 9-week lockdown could have decreased infections by 75% and deaths by 38%.

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  • Lockdown effects on transmission became apparent after a 3-4 week delay.
  • Voluntary social distancing occurred but was less pronounced than a mandated lockdown.
  • A lockdown scenario indicated minimal additional economic output loss.

    • Conclusions:

    • A lockdown in Sweden during early 2020 could have significantly reduced COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
    • Voluntary social restraint partially mitigated the absence of a lockdown.
    • The economic trade-off for a lockdown appears manageable.