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Published on: February 26, 2013
Hypertension and Atrial Fibrillation: A Study on Epidemiology and Mendelian Randomization Causality
Li-Zhen Liao1,2,3, Xiu-Yun Wen1,2,3, Shao-Zhao Zhang4
1Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China.
Insights
Hypertension (HT) significantly increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). This study found HT raises AF incidence by 50% and confirmed a causal link using genetic analysis, supporting targeted HT management for AF prevention.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Genetics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Hypertension (HT) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently co-occur, but their causal relationship requires further investigation.
- Understanding this link is crucial for developing effective prevention and treatment strategies for cardiovascular diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causal relationship between hypertension and the incidence of atrial fibrillation.
- To quantify the increased risk of AF in individuals with HT.
Main Methods:
- Utilized individual participant data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (n=9,474).
- Employed Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox hazard regression to assess the association between HT and incident AF.
- Conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data to analyze causality between genetically determined HT and AF.
Main Results:
- A total of 1,414 incident AF cases were identified over a median follow-up of 24.1 years.
- Adjusted Cox regression showed a 50% increased hazard of incident AF in participants with HT (HR: 1.50, 95% CI 1.29-1.73).
- MR analysis revealed a significant causal correlation between genetically determined HT and AF (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.04), with genetically determined systolic and diastolic blood pressure consistently associated with higher AF risk.
Conclusions:
- Hypertension is associated with a 50% increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the ARIC cohort.
- Mendelian randomization analysis provides strong evidence supporting a causal inference between hypertension and atrial fibrillation.
Abstract:
Introduction: Hypertension (HT) and atrial fibrillation (AF) often coexist. However, the causality between these two conditions remains to be determined. Methods: We used individual participant data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) prospective cohort with 9,474 participants. HT was ascertained at visit 1 (1987-1989), and incident AF was identified by ECGs conducted during study examinations at each visit, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimate to compute the cumulative incidence of AF by the HT subgroup. Then we used Cox hazard regression model to assess the association between HT and incident AF. The causality between genetically determined HT and AF was analyzed by the two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) based on publicly summarized genome-wide association studies (GWASs) data. Results: A total of 1,414 cases (14.9%) of AF were identified during the follow-up period (median 24.1 years). After adjusting for all covariates, the hazard ratio between the participants with HT and incident AF was 1.50 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.73]. In the HT → AF MR analysis, we detected a causal correlation between HT and AF (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.04, P = 0.01) with no evidence of heterogeneity from single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Besides, the genetically determined SBP and DBP (10 mmHg) were consistently associated with a higher risk of AF. Conclusions: In the ARIC study, the incident AF increased by 50% in patients with HT. In the MR analysis, our results supported causal inference between HT and AF.
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