Hypertension and Atrial Fibrillation: A Study on Epidemiology and Mendelian Randomization Causality

Li-Zhen Liao1,2,3, Xiu-Yun Wen1,2,3, Shao-Zhao Zhang4

  • 1Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China.

Insights

Hypertension (HT) significantly increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). This study found HT raises AF incidence by 50% and confirmed a causal link using genetic analysis, supporting targeted HT management for AF prevention.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Genetics
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Hypertension (HT) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently co-occur, but their causal relationship requires further investigation.
  • Understanding this link is crucial for developing effective prevention and treatment strategies for cardiovascular diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal relationship between hypertension and the incidence of atrial fibrillation.
  • To quantify the increased risk of AF in individuals with HT.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized individual participant data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (n=9,474).
  • Employed Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox hazard regression to assess the association between HT and incident AF.
  • Conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data to analyze causality between genetically determined HT and AF.

Main Results:

  • A total of 1,414 incident AF cases were identified over a median follow-up of 24.1 years.
  • Adjusted Cox regression showed a 50% increased hazard of incident AF in participants with HT (HR: 1.50, 95% CI 1.29-1.73).
  • MR analysis revealed a significant causal correlation between genetically determined HT and AF (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.04), with genetically determined systolic and diastolic blood pressure consistently associated with higher AF risk.

Conclusions:

  • Hypertension is associated with a 50% increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the ARIC cohort.
  • Mendelian randomization analysis provides strong evidence supporting a causal inference between hypertension and atrial fibrillation.

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