A model for evaluating the economic value of prevention programs for illicit use of anabolic androgenic steroids

The illicit use of anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS) has become a societal concern. We developed a decision-analytic model for assessing the cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions targeting AAS-use. We used scenario analyses to demonstrate: a) the potential health economic consequences of AAS use in Sweden, and b) the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical preventive intervention.

A population-based cohort model compared a hypothetical preventive intervention targeting AAS with a 'no intervention' scenario, from a limited societal perspective. The model simulated how a cohort of 18 year-old males transitioned between different states and predicted their health status and complications until the age of 41. Health outcomes were estimated as quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Costs included intervention costs, drug costs, and costs of complications.

Total yearly costs related to AAS use amounted to nearly half a million US$, with the largest cost borne by the healthcare sector. Results suggest that AAS prevention could entail large costs and benefits with a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $550 per QALY, in a scenario where the intervention would decrease the probability of initiating AAS use by 5%.

Results show large AAS related costs, and suggest that the implementation of a preventive intervention could offer good value for money given different effectiveness scenarios. This model can be used to estimate the value of interventions targeting AAS use.