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COVID-19 prediction using LSTM algorithm: GCC case study.

Kareem Kamal A Ghany1,2, Hossam M Zawbaa2,3, Heba M Sabri4

  • 1College of Computing and Informatics, Saudi Electronic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked
|April 12, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) models predict COVID-19 spread in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study forecasts recovery timelines and analyzes factors influencing virus propagation using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms.

Keywords:
Artificial intelligenceCOVID-19Deep learningLSTMPrediction

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global health, economies, and societies.
  • Understanding virus propagation dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict COVID-19 propagation in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using AI.
  • To analyze the influence of quality of life, testing rates, and public awareness on virus spread.
  • To forecast recovery timelines for individual GCC nations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized time-series datasets from Johns Hopkins University (January 2020 - January 2021).
  • Implemented a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model with ten hidden units.
  • Calculated Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) for model validation.

Main Results:

  • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Qatar predicted to have the longest recovery periods.
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain anticipated to see controllable situations by mid-March 2021.
  • Bahrain showed the best model performance (RMSE: 320.79 confirmed, 1.84 deaths); KSA showed the worst (RMSE: 1768.35 confirmed, 21.78 deaths).
  • Kuwait (MARE: 37.76 confirmed) and Qatar (MARE: 0.30 deaths) had the best relative error metrics; KSA had the worst (MARE: 71.45 confirmed, 1.33 deaths).

Conclusions:

  • AI, specifically LSTM, can effectively predict COVID-19 trends in the GCC region.
  • Recovery timelines vary significantly across GCC countries, with KSA and Qatar facing longer-term challenges.
  • Model performance metrics indicate varying accuracy levels, with Bahrain and Kuwait/Qatar showing better predictive accuracy in specific metrics.