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Estimation of COVID-19 outbreak size in Harbin, China
Haitao Song1,2, Zhongwei Jia3, Zhen Jin1,2
1Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006 China.
Insights
An April 2020 COVID-19 outbreak in Harbin, China, involved 174 cases, with 46% undetected. Effective interventions drastically reduced the reproduction number, controlling the spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 outbreaks pose significant public health challenges.
- Imported cases can trigger localized outbreaks even after initial control measures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the transmission dynamics of a COVID-19 outbreak in Harbin, China.
- To estimate the total size and identify undetected cases during the Harbin outbreak.
Main Methods:
- Development and application of a mathematical model for disease transmission.
- Dynamical analysis and data fitting to real-world outbreak data.
Main Results:
- The estimated outbreak size in Harbin was 174 cases.
- Approximately 46% of infected individuals were not identified.
- The effective reproduction number decreased from 3.6 to 0.04 following government interventions.
Conclusions:
- Vigilance against undetected infected individuals is crucial for outbreak control.
- Swift and effective public health interventions successfully controlled the COVID-19 outbreak in Harbin.
- The implemented strategies significantly reduced transmission, bringing the effective reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1.
Abstract:
Since the first level response to public health emergencies was launched on January 25, 2020, in Heilongjiang province, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 seems to be under control. However, an outbreak of COVID-19 caused by imported cases developed in Harbin during April 2020. A mathematical model is established to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 in Harbin. Based on the dynamical analysis and data fitting, the research investigates the outbreak of COVID-19 in Harbin and estimates the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Harbin. The outbreak size estimated of COVID-19 in Harbin reaches 174, where 54% of infected cases were identified while 46% of infected cases were not found out. We should maintain vigilance against unfound infected people. Our findings suggest that the effective reproduction number decreased drastically in contrast with the value of 3.6 on April 9; after that the effective interventions were implemented by the Heilongjiang province government. Finally, the effective reproduction number arrived at the value of 0.04 which is immensely below the threshold value 1, which means that the Heilongjiang province government got the outbreak of COVID-19 in Harbin under control.
