Models for factors influencing pathogen survival in low water activity foods from literature data are highly significant but show large unexplained variance

Factors that control pathogen survival in low water activity foods are not well understood and vary greatly from food to food. A literature search was performed to locate data on the survival of foodborne pathogens in low-water activity (<0.70) foods held at temperatures <37 °C. Data were extracted from 67 publications and simple linear regression models were fit to each data set to estimate log linear rates of change. Multiple linear stepwise regression models for factors influencing survival rate were developed. Subset regression modeling gave relatively low adjusted R² values of 0.33, 0.37, and 0.48 for Salmonella, E. coli and L. monocytogenes respectively, but all subset models were highly significant (p < 1.0e-9). Subset regression models showed that Salmonella survival was significantly (p < 0.05) influenced by temperature, serovar and strain type, water activity, inoculum preparation method, and inoculation method. E. coli survival was significantly influenced by temperature, water activity, and inoculum preparation. L. monocytogenes survival was significantly influenced by temperature, serovar and strain type, and inoculum preparation method. While many factors were highly significant (p < 0.001), the high degrees of variability show that there is still much to learn about the factors which govern pathogen survival in low water activity foods.