Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Health Economics
• Public Health Interventions

Background:

• COVID-19 contagion is influenced by individual behavior under health uncertainty.
• The role of antibody testing as a non-pharmaceutical intervention for COVID-19 prevention is under-explored in scientific literature.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of antibody testing on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
• To quantify the potential reduction in deaths and welfare losses attributable to antibody testing.

Main Methods:

• Development of a simple economic model of epidemic spread.
• Simulation of agent behavior based on perceived immunity and health state uncertainty.
• Analysis of the effect of antibody testing on social activity and infection escalation.

Main Results:

• Individuals who believe they might be immune increase social activity, escalating infections and deaths.
• Antibody testing corrects this behavior by revealing true immune status, preventing escalation.
• The model predicts antibody testing can prevent approximately 12% of COVID-19 related deaths over 12 months.

Conclusions:

• Antibody testing emerges as a novel non-pharmaceutical intervention for mitigating COVID-19.
• Clarifying immune status through testing significantly reduces disease transmission and associated mortality.
• Economic modeling supports the implementation of antibody testing to improve public health outcomes during pandemics.