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When Forecasting Mutually Supportive Matches Will Be Practically Impossible.

Brian Lakey¹, Jessica Brummans¹, Amy Obreiter¹

¹Department of Psychology, Grand Valley State University.

Psychological Science

|April 26, 2021

Summary

Forecasting supportive relationships is difficult because individuals often disagree about their relationship quality. Low agreement (relational reciprocity) limits prediction accuracy, making it hard to identify supportive dyads.

Keywords:

affect online dating open data perceived support relational-regulation theory social-relations model

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Area of Science:

Social Psychology
Relationship Science
Psychometrics

Background:

Forecasting the development of mutually supportive relationships is a key research question in social psychology.
Psychometric theory suggests that agreement between individuals in a dyad (relational reciprocity) limits the accuracy of relationship predictions.
Low relational reciprocity can undermine the reliability of relationship assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the role of relational reciprocity in forecasting the development of supportive relationships.
To test predictions derived from psychometric theory regarding the impact of reciprocity on forecasting accuracy.
To evaluate recent social support theories by examining the predictability of supportive dyadic relationships.

Main Methods:

Study 1: Assessed relational reciprocity in seven samples (N=504 dyads) using round-robin designs where participants rated each other on support.
Study 2: Utilized a measure for dyad matching based on recent theory to test the predictability of supportive relationships.
Employed psychometric formulas to predict forecasting accuracy based on estimated relational reciprocity.

Main Results:

Relational reciprocity was found to be very low across samples, significantly undermining measurement reliability.
As predicted by psychometric theory, forecasting supportive dyadic relationships with acceptable precision was practically impossible.
The findings challenge specific predictions made by recent social support theories.

Conclusions:

Low relational reciprocity presents a fundamental limitation in accurately forecasting supportive relationships.
Current social support theories may require revision based on the demonstrated difficulty in predicting relationship quality.
Translating basic social support research into effective interventions remains a significant practical challenge.