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Towards quantifying the mass extinction debt of the Anthropocene
Christopher Spalding1,2, Pincelli M Hull3
1Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|April 28, 2021
Summary
Modern extinction rates should be compared to geological extinction pulses, not background rates. A new metric predicts future extinctions based on human ecosystem modification, offering a chance to avert mass extinction.
Area of Science:
- Paleontology
- Ecology
- Geology
Background:
- Modern biodiversity crises are assessed by comparing current extinction rates to background rates from the fossil record.
- However, a significant portion of past extinctions occurred in short-lived pulses, not background intervals.
- Current comparison metrics do not adequately account for extinction pulse durations or observation time differences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a new predictive metric for assessing the ultimate scale of the current extinction threat.
- To improve the comparison of modern extinction events with geological extinction pulses.
- To establish a method for predicting future extinction magnitudes based on geological analogues.
Main Methods:
- Analyzing the correlation between extinction magnitude and sedimentary turnover in the marine fossil record.
- Developing a predictive metric based on the relationship between sedimentary turnover and extinction events.
- Quantitatively appraising human modification of ecosystems as recorded in sediments.
Main Results:
- Extinction magnitude in the marine fossil record is correlated with sedimentary turnover.
- A new metric can predict the ultimate number of species destined for extinction.
- Human modification of ecosystems, recorded in sediments, serves as a proxy for extinction magnitude.
Conclusions:
- Comparing modern extinction events to geological extinction pulses provides a more accurate assessment of the biodiversity crisis.
- A predictive metric based on sedimentary turnover and ecosystem modification can estimate future extinction debt.
- Preserving and restoring ecosystems is crucial to avert a profound mass extinction, even with existing extinction debt.
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