Predicting Hospital Overall Quality Star Ratings in the USA

The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) assigns quality star ratings to hospitals upon assessing their performance across 57 measures. Ratings can be used by healthcare consumers for hospital selection and hospitals for quality improvement. We provide a simpler, more intuitive modeling approach, aligned with recent criticism by stakeholders. An ordered logistic regression approach is proposed to assess associations between performance measures and ratings across eligible (n = 4519) U.S. hospitals. Covariate selection reduces the double counting of information from highly correlated measures. Multiple imputation allows for inference of star ratings when information on all measures is not available. Twenty performance measures were found to contain all the relevant information to formulate star rating predictions upon accounting for performance measure correlation. Hospitals can focus their efforts on a subset of model-identified measures, while healthcare consumers can predict quality star ratings for hospitals ineligible under CMS criteria.