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SARS-CoV-2: The Second Wave in Europe.

Athanassios S Fokas1,2,3, George A Kastis3

  • 1Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

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|May 3, 2021
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

New SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) mutants show higher infectivity but lower virulence. This shift explains the dramatic second wave, emphasizing the need for continued public health measures.

Keywords:
COVID-19SARS CoV-2lockdown in Europemathematical modelling of epidemicspandemic

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on infectivity and virulence is debated.
  • Forecasting and mechanistic models were developed to study COVID-19 dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present arguments suggesting SARS-CoV-2 mutants from the second wave exhibit decreased virulence and increased infectivity.
  • To analyze the epidemiological trends observed during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized forecasting and mechanistic modeling to predict COVID-19 outbreak patterns.
  • Analyzed reported infected cases and deaths during the first and second waves of the pandemic in European countries.

Main Results:

  • Mechanistic models predicted a significant second wave following lockdown easing.
  • The second wave (starting August 2020) showed a higher rate of infections but a lower rate of deaths compared to the first wave.
  • Observed trends align with increased infectivity and decreased virulence of SARS-CoV-2 mutants.

Conclusions:

  • The observed epidemiological trends suggest SARS-CoV-2 mutants driving the second wave possess higher infectivity and lower virulence.
  • Despite reduced virulence, the high number of infections in the second wave poses a significant public health risk, leading to substantial mortality.