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SARS-CoV-2: The Second Wave in Europe
Athanassios S Fokas1,2,3, George A Kastis3
1Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Journal of Medical Internet Research
|May 3, 2021
Summary
New SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) mutants show higher infectivity but lower virulence. This shift explains the dramatic second wave, emphasizing the need for continued public health measures.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on infectivity and virulence is debated.
- Forecasting and mechanistic models were developed to study COVID-19 dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present arguments suggesting SARS-CoV-2 mutants from the second wave exhibit decreased virulence and increased infectivity.
- To analyze the epidemiological trends observed during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.
Main Methods:
- Utilized forecasting and mechanistic modeling to predict COVID-19 outbreak patterns.
- Analyzed reported infected cases and deaths during the first and second waves of the pandemic in European countries.
Main Results:
- Mechanistic models predicted a significant second wave following lockdown easing.
- The second wave (starting August 2020) showed a higher rate of infections but a lower rate of deaths compared to the first wave.
- Observed trends align with increased infectivity and decreased virulence of SARS-CoV-2 mutants.
Conclusions:
- The observed epidemiological trends suggest SARS-CoV-2 mutants driving the second wave possess higher infectivity and lower virulence.
- Despite reduced virulence, the high number of infections in the second wave poses a significant public health risk, leading to substantial mortality.
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