Smoking Susceptibility and Tobacco Media Engagement Among Youth Never Smokers

Susceptibility to future smoking among youth never smokers has not changed in the past 20 years, although experimental cigarette smoking has decreased. We assessed how smoking susceptibility and tobacco industry-related marketing influenced smoking initiation.

Four waves (2013-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study data were analyzed among youth aged 12 to 17 years at wave 1 who completed wave 4. Susceptibility was assessed by 4 items (openness to curiosity, try soon, try in the next year, and if your best friend offered) and categorized into 4 levels (0 = definitely no to all; 1 = yes to 1; 2 = yes to 2; and 3 + 4 = yes to 3 or 4 susceptibility items). Multivariable logistic regression evaluated how susceptibility levels, electronic cigarette use, and tobacco-related media activity predicted future experimental (≥1 puff), current (past 30 days), or established (≥100 cigarettes) smoking.

Among 8899 never smokers at wave 1, 16.4% became experimental smokers, 7.6% current smokers, and 1.8% established smokers at wave 4. Black and Latino/a youth were less likely to experiment. Youth who endorsed 3 or 4 susceptibility items at wave 1 were more likely to be experimental (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6.0; confidence interval [CI] = 4.8-7.4), current (aOR = 4.2; CI = 3.2-5.4), or established (aOR = 4.4; CI = 2.4-7.9) smokers at wave 4. Exposure to tobacco marketing, using tobacco-related apps, seeing social media content posted about tobacco, and ever use of electronic cigarettes also predicted experimental smoking.

Smoking susceptibility and exposure to tobacco industry-related marketing were predictive of cigarette smoking. Clinicians should consider screening adolescents for smoking susceptibility and tobacco-related media exposure.