Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Climate Change Impact

Background:

• Emerging infectious diseases, like Zika virus (ZIKV), necessitate understanding transmission dynamics.
• Assessing the impact of mitigation strategies and environmental factors is critical for pandemic preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a temperature-dependent model for Zika virus transmission dynamics.
• To investigate the influence of temperature variability and control parameters on ZIKV's basic reproduction number (R0) and final epidemic size.

Main Methods:

• Parametrization of a temperature-dependent model using experimental Zika virus data.
• Sensitivity analyses to determine key drivers of R0 and epidemic size.
• Modeling ZIKV transmission under various constant and variable temperature scenarios.

Main Results:

• ZIKV transmission dynamics are primarily driven by temperature.
• The basic reproduction number (R0) shows an optimal temperature around 30°C.
• Final epidemic size is maximized across a broader temperature range (24-36°C), with seasonal variation increasing ZIKV's potential geographical spread.

Conclusions:

• Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature fluctuations.
• Climate dynamics and variation are crucial for predicting the geographical range and impact of ZIKV.
• Static R0 models may underestimate ZIKV's potential spread, highlighting the importance of considering climate change in disease surveillance.