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Beliefs, Actions, and Rationality in Strategical Decisions.
Zheng Wang1, Jerome R Busemeyer2, Brahm deBuys1
1School of Communication, The Ohio State University.
Topics in Cognitive Science
|May 7, 2021
Summary
Predictions influence strategic decisions, creating an interference effect where stated predictions alter action probabilities. This challenges traditional economics, suggesting a quantum cognition approach to decision-making models.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Science
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Research on strategic decision-making reveals that predictions can interfere with future actions.
- This interference effect, where stating a prediction alters action probabilities, has been observed in previous studies using the prisoner's dilemma game.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate interference effects in strategic decision-making within a centipede game.
- To explore the applicability of quantum cognition models to explain these observed interference effects.
Main Methods:
- Reviewed five empirical findings on interference effects from prisoner's dilemma game studies.
- Conducted a new experiment with 493 participants playing a six-stage centipede game against a computer agent.
- Analyzed the impact of predictions on cooperation probabilities at different game stages.
Main Results:
- In the first stage of the centipede game, predictions increased cooperation probability compared to decisions made without prediction.
- In later stages, predictions decreased cooperation probability compared to decisions made without prediction.
- Observed interference effects were difficult to reconcile with traditional economic models.
Conclusions:
- Interference effects in strategic decision-making challenge conventional economic explanations.
- A quantum cognition approach, specifically a belief-action entanglement model, can effectively account for the empirical results.
- Quantum models offer a promising framework for understanding human strategic decision-making.
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