Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Arctic Research
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Rapid Arctic warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of northern wildfires.
• Thawing permafrost releases significant amounts of previously stored carbon.
• These Arctic emissions are not fully incorporated into global carbon budgets.

Purpose of the Study:

• To highlight the impact of Arctic feedbacks on global climate targets.
• To emphasize the need for updated carbon budgets that include permafrost and wildfire emissions.
• To advocate for increased ambition in greenhouse gas reduction strategies.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of current scientific literature on Arctic warming, wildfires, and permafrost thaw.
• Review of global emissions budgets and Paris Agreement commitments.
• Assessment of the implications of uncounted Arctic emissions for climate targets.

Main Results:

• Emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires significantly reduce available carbon budgets for staying below 1.5 °C or 2 °C.
• Incomplete carbon budgets informed recent Paris Agreement commitments, potentially undermining their effectiveness.
• Failure to account for Arctic feedbacks necessitates more aggressive societal emissions reductions.

Conclusions:

• Urgent incorporation of Arctic science into international climate policy is required.
• Increased ambition in reducing societal greenhouse gas emissions is crucial.
• Addressing Arctic feedbacks is essential for achieving global climate goals.