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Dynamic nomogram for long-term survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after pneumonectomy
Zi-Ming Wang1, Marc Swierzy1, Dany Balke1
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, Klinikum Ernst von Bergmann Potsdam, Academic Hospital of the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Humboldt University Berlin, Potsdam, Germany.
Background:
The study aims to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in patients who had pneumonectomy, in order to develop a practical dynamic nomogram model.
Methods:
A total of 2,255 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who underwent pneumonectomy were identified from 2010-2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The cohort was divided into a training (2011-2015) and a validation [2010] cohort. A nomogram and a risk classification system were constructed from the independent survival factors in multivariable analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was measured through internal and external validation.
Results:
Independent prognostic factors associated with OS were gender, age, pathology, tumor size, N stage, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The C-index of the nomogram for OS was 0.675 (95% CI: 0.655-0.694). Similarly, the AUC of the model was 0.733, 0.709, and 0.701 for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, respectively. The calibration curves for survival demonstrated good agreement. Significant statistical differences were found in the OS of patients within different risk groups. An online calculation tool was established for clinical use.
Conclusions:
This novel nomogram was able to provide a reliable prognosis for survival in patients with NSCLC undergoing pneumonectomy.
