The placebo effect: To explore or to exploit?

How people choose between options with differing outcomes (explore-exploit) is a central question to understanding human behaviour. However, the standard explore-exploit paradigm relies on gamified tasks with low-stake outcomes. Consequently, little is known about decision making for biologically-relevant stimuli. Here, we combined placebo and explore-exploit paradigms to examine detection and selection of the most effective treatment in a pain model. During conditioning, where 'optimal' and 'suboptimal' sham-treatments were paired with a reduction in electrical pain stimulation, participants learnt which treatment most successfully reduced pain. Modelling participant responses revealed three important findings. First, participants' choices reflected both directed and random exploration. Second, expectancy modulated pain - indicative of recursive placebo effects. Third, individual differences in terms of expectancy during conditioning predicted placebo effects during a subsequent test phase. These findings reveal directed and random exploration when the outcome is biologically-relevant. Moreover, this research shows how placebo and explore-exploit literatures can be unified.