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Published on: October 9, 2018
Can methods of artificial intelligence aid in optimizing patient selection in patients undergoing intrauterine
Nejc Kozar1,2, Vilma Kovač3,4, Milan Reljič3,4
1Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynaecological Endocrinology, Clinic for Gynaecology and Perinatology, University Medical Centre Maribor, Ljubljanska 5, 2000, Maribor, Slovenia. nejc@kozar.me.
Purpose:
AI and its machine learning algorithms have proven useful in several fields of medicine, including medically assisted reproduction. The purpose of the study was to construct several predictive models based on clinical data and select the best models to predict IUI procedure outcomes.
Methods:
Clinical data (patient baseline characteristics, sperm quality, hormonal status, and cycle data) from 1029 IUI procedures performed in 413 couples stimulated by clomiphene citrate, letrozole, or gonadotropins were used to build several models to predict clinical pregnancy. The models included ANN, random forest, PLS, SVM, and linear models using the caret package in R. The models were evaluated using ROC analysis by means of random CV on test data.
Results:
Out of the best performing models, the random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.66, a sensitivity of 0.432, and a specificity of 0.756. This performance was followed by the PLS model, which achieved a sensitivity of 0.459 and specificity of 0.734. The other models achieved significantly lower AUCs. When adjusting the predictive cutoff value, confusion matrices show that clinical pregnancy is twice as likely in the case of positive prediction.
Conclusion:
Among the compared methods, the random forest and PLS models demonstrated superior performance in predicting the clinical outcome of IUI. With additional research and clinical validation, AI methods may be successfully used in improving patient selection and consequently lead to better clinical results.
