[High level systolic blood pressure trajectories is the risk factor for cancer]

Objective: To explore the effect of systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories on cancers. Methods: The relevant data of 54, 888 employees of Kailuan (Group) Limited Liability Company who participated in the 3 health examinations from 2006-2007, 2008-2009, 2010-2011 were collected and the new onset cancer cases were recorded. The systolic blood pressure trajectory grouping was carried out using the blood pressure measurement values of the 3 physical examinations. The life table method was used to calculate the incidence of cancer, and the multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the influence factors of cancer. Results: According to the systolic blood pressure trajectory, 54, 888 subjects were divided into 5 groups, including 14, 326 in the low-stable group, 25, 630 in the moderate-stable group, 5, 390 in the moderate-increasing group, 6, 438 in the elevated-lowering group, and 3, 104 in the elevated-stable group. A total of 1, 070 new onset cancer occurred during the follow-up period of (4.95±0.53) years. The incidence of cancer in the low-stable group, moderate-stable group, moderate-increasing group, elevated-lowering group and elevated-stable group were 1.3% (177/14, 326), 2.2% (491/25, 360), 3.1% (147/5, 390), 2.7% (156/6, 438) and 3.8% (99/3, 104), respectively, the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). After adjusting for gender, age, smoking, drinking, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, antihypertensive drugs, hypoglycemic drugs, and lipid-lowering drugs, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the systolic blood pressure trajectory was related to the incidence of cancer. Compared with the low-stable group, the Hazard ratio (HR) in the moderate-stable group, moderate-increasing group, elevated-lowering group and elevated-stable group were 1.413, 1.731, 1.557 and 1.907, respectively (all P<0.001). Conclusion: High systolic blood pressure trajectories is the risk factor for cancer.