Modelling palliative and end-of-life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Services Research
• Epidemiology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused over 1.3 million global deaths by November 2020.
• Effective pandemic response requires accurate resource needs assessment for end-of-life (EoL) care.
• Anticipating surges in demand is crucial for healthcare system preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a generic computer model for estimating EoL care resource requirements during a pandemic.
• To quantify the 'staff' and 'stuff' needed for EoL care activity.
• To inform resource allocation and planning for pandemic-related deaths.

Main Methods:

• A discrete event simulation model was developed.
• The model was applied to a population of approximately 1 million in the South West of England.
• It predicts daily resource needs based on EoL care activity levels.

Main Results:

• Daily needs include an estimated 11.97 hours of community nurse time and up to 33 hours of care assistant time.
• Specialist palliative care demand may increase by up to 19 hours daily.
• An average of 10.21 anticipatory medication bundles and 9.35 syringe pumps per day are predicted.

Conclusions:

• The study highlights substantial physical and human resource requirements for EoL care during the pandemic.
• The model provides a flexible tool for assessing resourcing needs in different settings.
• Effective pandemic response necessitates proactive planning for EoL care demands.