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When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?
Augusto Cerqua1, Roberta Di Stefano2
1Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
Statistical Methods & Applications
|May 26, 2021
Summary
The study found that coronavirus spread in Northern Italy earlier than officially reported, with initial cases appearing in mid-January 2020. This research used death data to trace the virus
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
- Public Health
Background:
- The official detection of the first European coronavirus cluster was in Northern Italy on February 21, 2020.
- Emerging evidence suggested earlier sporadic cases in Europe.
- The precise timeline of early coronavirus spread in Italy remained unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the presence of coronavirus in Italy.
- To determine if the virus spread in Italy before February 21, 2020.
- To establish an earlier timeline for coronavirus transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a counterfactual approach to analyze mortality data.
- Employed certified daily death data (all causes) at the municipality level.
- Statistical modeling to estimate virus spread patterns.
Main Results:
- Estimates confirm coronavirus transmission in Northern Italy began in mid-January 2020.
- The virus circulation predates the officially reported cluster.
- Data analysis indicates a broader early spread than previously acknowledged.
Conclusions:
- Coronavirus circulated in Northern Italy significantly earlier than officially recognized.
- The study highlights the importance of retrospective data analysis for understanding epidemic origins.
- Findings suggest a need for re-evaluation of early pandemic response strategies.
