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Updated: Nov 4, 2025

Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates
Jonathan M Read1, Jessica R E Bridgen1, Derek A T Cummings2
1Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4AT, UK.
Abstract:
Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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