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Data-Driven and Machine-Learning Methods to Project Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Trend in Eastern Mediterranean
Wenbo Huang1,2, Shuang Ao1, Dan Han3
1Beijing Engineering Research Center of Food Environment and Public Health, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in Public Health
|May 31, 2021
Summary
COVID-19 trends are decreasing in Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia due to interventions. However, Iran and Iraq require strengthened public health measures to control the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Data Science
Background:
- The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presents a significant global public health challenge.
- The Eastern Mediterranean region is notably impacted by the COVID-19 crisis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess COVID-19 characteristics, prevalence, and intervention effectiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- To model the spatial spread of COVID-19 and project future trends based on current control measures.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a data-driven approach to analyze COVID-19 pandemic data.
- Developed a spatial model to forecast confirmed cases and daily growth rates.
- Evaluated the impact of existing intervention strategies on pandemic trajectory.
Main Results:
- Significant downward trends in daily cases, active cases, and growth rates observed in Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.
- Despite downward trends, total confirmed cases and deaths continue to rise in these countries.
- Projected continued increases in total and active COVID-19 cases for Iran and Iraq under current interventions.
Conclusions:
- Maintaining or intensifying interventions can lead to containment of COVID-19 in Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.
- Urgent strengthening of intervention responses is critical for Iran and Iraq to mitigate future increases.
- The study aims to inform and enhance COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.
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