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This study introduces a novel risk mapping method using trusted contacts to combat COVID-19 spread. Combining this with contact tracing significantly reduces infections, potentially requiring fewer users than previously thought.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Network Science
  • Public Health Technology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for effective information dissemination to control disease spread.
  • Technological solutions can empower citizens with environmental risk awareness.
  • Contact tracing technologies face societal resistance, necessitating alternative or complementary approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a consensus-based risk mapping method using directed networks and trusted contacts.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of this risk mapping strategy, individually and in combination with contact tracing.
  • To determine the minimum user participation required for effective disease control.

Main Methods:

  • A variation of consensus processes in directed networks was developed to generate area-specific risk maps.
  • Information sharing occurred among trusted contacts, simulating a notification chain for potential infections.
  • The proposed method's results were compared against the pilot data from Spain's RadarCOVID contact tracing application.

Main Results:

  • The risk mapping strategy could be effective with as few as 20% of active installations, primarily delaying propagation.
  • Contact tracing alone may require only 40% user participation to control COVID-19 spread, contrary to previous estimates.
  • Combining risk mapping with contact tracing significantly reduced the number of infected individuals, even with fewer participants.

Conclusions:

  • A hybrid approach integrating risk mapping and contact tracing offers a more efficient strategy for COVID-19 containment.
  • Lower user participation thresholds are feasible for both contact tracing and risk mapping when used synergistically.
  • This methodology presents a promising technological complement to traditional public health measures for pandemic management.